Date issued: 23 October 2026
Senior Analyst at Ambrey, Tomas Alexa, stated:
“Ambrey assesses that regional surveillance and air-defence measures have not yet been able to prevent UAV attacks on merchant shipping in the Romanian and Bulgarian EEZs. The nine strikes in October, the latest about 16NM off Constanța, show that low-cost UAVs can reach vessels close to NATO coasts. This reflects a change in the threat rather than the failure of any one system. Detecting and intercepting UAVs that are designed to work in contested airspace remains a complex problem, and merchant vessels cannot be assured of protection.”
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- A Comoros-flagged ore and oil carrier was struck by a UAV about 16NM east of Constanța at approximately 07:05 UTC on 23 October and capsized; one crew member is dead, nine are rescued and three are missing, with search and rescue (SAR) ongoing
- It is the ninth merchant vessel recorded as struck in Romanian and Bulgarian waters in October, and the closest to Constanța, Romania’s main port
- Ambrey assesses it HIGHLY LIKELY that Russian forces conducted the attack. The vessel had made multiple port calls at Ukrainian Danube Delta ports in 2026, and the Russian targeting profile is unchanged
- Deliberate targeting of a vessel with no link to Ukrainian trade remains EXTREMELY REMOTE, and misidentification HIGHLY UNLIKELY. However, the risk to unrelated vessels rises when they operate near a stricken vessel or are tasked to SAR, because of unexploded ordnance (UXO), secondary explosions and the possibility of follow-on strikes
- Attacks closer to NATO coasts, UAVs entering Romanian airspace and growing allied military activity raise the risk of miscalculation.
- Ambrey does not assess direct Russian–NATO engagement as imminent
SITUATION
At approximately 07:05 UTC (10:05 local time) on 23 October, a Comoros-flagged combined ore and oil carrier, northbound from Ereğli, Türkiye, to Sulina, Romania, laden with steel, turned abruptly to port, broadcast a Mayday on VHF reporting a UAV impact and capsized about 16NM east of Constanța. Its AIS stopped at 07:10 UTC and two SAR vessels arrived at about 07:56 UTC. One crew member has died, nine have been rescued and three are missing; figures are provisional.