AMBREY THREAT CIRCULAR UPDATE/002> INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING UNDER US-IRAN ESCALATION
Date released: 23 February 2026
Source: This document has been approved for distribution by Ambrey Analytics Ltd.
“As key diplomatic windows near, the US military’s posture has strengthened. Companies operating in the region are advised to consider and rehearse plans for strikes.”
UPDATE/002
Since the last update, there have been several indicators of heightened war risk, indicating increased preparedness for US airstrikes within days.
High resolution satellite imagery has indicated that by Friday 20 February US fighter aircraft had deployed to the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, Jordan, and refuelling aircraft had deployed to Prince Sultan Air Base (PSAB), Saudi Arabia. This has been corroborated with several images taken over the course of the week. There have not been as many aircraft at the PSAB seen on satellite imagery since around the time of Operation Midnight Hammer in mid-2025. There were similar numbers of aircraft two weeks prior to these US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. It is notable that this did not trigger a response against Saudi Arabia in 2025, and the configuration, of logistics support, not offensive aircraft, indicates this is a similar posture. There has not been a build-up of US aircraft on the British Indian Ocean territory of Diego Garcia, consistent with UK statements that its bases would not be used to strike Iran. The US retains the capability to launch long-range bombers…
