AMBREY THREAT CIRCULAR> INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING UNDER US-IRAN ESCALATION
Date released: 27 January 2026
Source: This document has been approved for distribution by Ambrey Analytics Ltd.
“Ambrey assesses that the US has positioned sufficient military capability to conduct kinetic operations against Iran while maintaining the ability to defend itself and regional allies from reciprocal action. While US President Trump retains the authority to order military action at short notice, Ambrey assesses him to be unwilling to engage in prolonged conflict, instead favouring clearly defined, outcome-driven objectives.”
Source: This document has been approved for distribution by Ambrey Analytics Ltd.
EVENT
- Protests in Iran and escalatory statements have raised confrontation risks. The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is deployed, and air defence and shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz have been strengthened.
- New US sanctions target Iran’s petrochemical sector and associated tankers, reinforcing trade restrictions.
- Iran and allies have threatened retaliation against US interests.
- US-affiliated shipping assessed to be at heightened risk – further escalation likely to impact shipping at large.
- Shipping companies are advised to reduce aggregate risk when operating in the Arabian/Persian Gulf.
SITUATION
In early January 2026, intensifying external rhetoric and actions aimed at facilitating regime change occurred among nationwide protests across Iran. Statements from Iranian, Israeli, and US officials contributed to an impression of escalating confrontation. President Trump stated that…