AMBREY INSIGHT > Cuba’s Energy Crisis and Regional Maritime Implications
Date issued: 02 June 2026
This document has been approved for distribution by Ambrey Analytics Ltd.
“Heightened military signalling in the Caribbean amid rising tensions between Cuba and the United States is contributing to a more elevated regional risk environment. Recent US naval deployments and stricter enforcement of sanctioned cargo flows increase the likelihood of maritime security disruptions and could affect commercial shipping operations across the region.”
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Since January 2025, US measures under Donald Trump administration have intensified pressure on Cuba by targeting oil supply chains, including actions against Venezuela and secondary sanctions on suppliers.
- Cuba’s heavy reliance on Venezuelan crude has left it highly vulnerable following disruptions to this supply and the halt of Mexican deliveries.
- Broader global dynamics, including instability in the Strait of Hormuz, are tightening oil markets and increasing freight and insurance costs, further limiting Cuba’s ability to secure supply.
- External support remains limited and inconsistent, with isolated deliveries such as the Russian tanker ANATOLY KOLODKIN providing only short-term relief under constrained conditions.
- Expanded US naval and air deployments around Cuba mirror aspects of the force posture observed prior to the January 2026 Venezuela operation, increasing the risk of military escalation, coercive action and disruption to regional maritime operations.
- The regional risk environment is expected to deteriorate, driven by increased US enforcement, potential vessel interdictions, and heightened sanctions exposure.
SITUATION
The situation in Cuba has deteriorated since January 2025, when the Donald Trump administration expanded pressure measures across the region. Following a US military operation that culminated in the capture of Nicolás Maduro, an Executive Order declared a national emergency and established a framework to impose tariffs on countries that sell or provide oil to Cuba.