AMBREY INSIGHT> US MILITARY BUILD-UP OFFSHORE VENEZUELA & WHAT IT MEANS FOR MERCHANT SHIPPING
Date update issued: 18 November 2025 (original insight issued: 06 November 2025)
“Ambrey advises maritime operators to use expert intelligence, bolster counternarcotics measures, and conduct thorough port risk and contingency planning when trading in or near Venezuela.”
Source: This document has been approved for distribution by Ambrey Analytics Ltd.
18/11/25 INSIGHT – UPDATE
On November 16, 2025, the US government announced its intention to designate Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO), with the designation set to be effective on November 24, 2025. In the announcement, it was included that Nicolás Maduro and other individuals of the Venezuelan government are the heads of the Cartel de los Soles. The announcement comes days after the arrival of the aircraft carrier USS GERALD FORD in the Caribbean Sea, demonstrating a significant increase in the US presence and expanding the US capability of performing long-range attacks, including inland, if required. Under the designation, the US is allowed to conduct limited land operations abroad without congressional approval, particularly under self-defense or counterterrorism.
Reportedly, President Donald Trump has been briefed in the past week on options for military operations inside Venezuela, as part of the recently announced US military operation SOUTHERN SPEAR to target designated narco-terrorists.
After the announcement, President Trump confirmed that the designation allows them to conduct inland actions in Venezuela, but nothing has been decided yet. He also stated that diplomatic options, such as discussions with Maduro, may be opening.
INSIGHT UPDATE – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Precautionary planning and strengthened counter-narcotics measures are recommended to mitigate potential secondary impacts.
- Since US military forces were deployed in the Caribbean Sea in August 2025, 21 strikes have occurred, resulting in a total of 83 reported fatalities.
- The US government has classified the campaign as a “non-international armed conflict” targeting narco-terrorist organizations. However, Washington has maintained a firmly adversarial stance toward the government of Nicolás Maduro when announcing the attacks.
- There is a realistic possibility of more strikes offshore Venezuela, potentially extending inland. Ambrey assesses that the recent developments also indicate that the ongoing tensions could deteriorate in the shorter term.
- Ambrey assesses a realistic possibility that cartels will start exploiting merchant vessels as a lower-exposure trafficking method.
CONTEXT
Starting in August 2025, the Trump administration ordered the deployment of several US naval vessels and other forces to the southern Caribbean as a counter narcotics measure against “narco-terrorist” organizations. The first action performed by the units took place a month later…