AMBREY INSIGHT> US MILITARY BUILD-UP OFFSHORE VENEZUELA & WHAT IT MEANS FOR MERCHANT SHIPPING
“As U.S. military activity intensifies in the Caribbean, Ambrey empowers shipping operators with real-time intelligence and expert analysis to navigate emerging security risks near Venezuela.”
Source: This document has been approved for distribution by Ambrey Analytics Ltd.
EVENTS
- Since US military forces were deployed in the Caribbean Sea in August 2025, 14 strikes have occurred, resulting in more than 50 reported fatalities.
- The US government has classified the campaign as a “non-international armed conflict” targeting narco-terrorist organizations. However, Washington has maintained a firmly adversarial stance toward the government of Nicolás Maduro when announcing the attacks.
- In this scenario, the strikes are likely a strategic demonstration of force, reflecting US opposition to Maduro’s policies.
- There is a realistic possibility of more strikes offshore Venezuela, potentially extending inland. However, Ambrey assesses a low likelihood of a broader US military conflict with Venezuela in the short-term.
- Ambrey assesses a realistic possibility that cartels will start exploiting merchant vessels as a lower-exposure trafficking method.
- Precautionary planning and strengthened counter-narcotics measures are recommended to mitigate potential secondary impacts.
CONTEXT
Starting in August 2025, the Trump administration ordered the deployment of several US naval vessels and other forces to the southern Caribbean as a counter narcotics measure against “narco-terrorist” organizations. The first action performed by the units took place a month later…