AMBREY INSIGHT> THREAT TO PORTS RECEIVING RUSSIAN CRUDE OIL – LIMPET MINE ATTACKS
Date issued: 21 January 2026
“Ambrey advises that the most likely effects are short-notice disruption: temporary danger areas, denser military/law-enforcement traffic, and schedule volatility. Live-firing and parallel enforcement activities increase the risk of miscalculation. Maintain routing flexibility.”
Source: This document has been approved for distribution by Ambrey Analytics Ltd.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Limpet mine attacks against tankers carrying Russian-origin oil will likely continue in early 2026
- Each targeted tanker was laden at the time of the explosion.
- Ports receiving Russian crude or refined products may be indirectly exposed to this threat
- Vessels may be targeted after arrival, rather than during transit, particularly while alongside or at anchor
- The targeting may be designed to cause disruption to the port operations and to send a symbolic message to the oil recipient port
- The Russia-Ukraine peace talks continue, yet deep divergences persist between Ukraine’s insistence on territorial integrity and concrete security guarantees by the US, directly in contrast to Russia’s maximalist demands
SITUATION
There is assessed to be a heighted risk of further limpet mine attacks on merchant tankers carrying Russian oil and oil products.
Since 2025, at least seven merchant vessels carrying Russian-origin oil have been targeted…