AMBREY INSIGHT > tHE IMPACT OF THE WAR IN IRAN ON THE GULF OF GUINEA
Date issued: 1 April 2026
This document has been approved for distribution by Ambrey Analytics Ltd.
“The Gulf of Guinea is unlikely to increase capacity enough to offset the shortfall in crude and refined products. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company expects production to rise by only ~100,000 bpd this year, limiting any significant increase in tanker activity. The Dangote Refinery was already unable to operate at full capacity due to crude shortages, so refined product output will likely remain constrained. While oil and gas terminals may see a revenue boost, Bonny Light prices have risen from ~$72 to ~$112 per barrel. As seen globally, refined fuel costs have increased significantly in Nigeria, while other West African regulated markets have absorbed price rises.”
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The Gulf of Guinea does not have the capability to significantly increase production of crude oil and refined products.
- The price of Bonny Light has increased to approximately $112 per barrel.
- There is not expected to be an increase in kidnappings.
- There could realistically be an uptick in oil product tanker hijackings.
- There could also be a reversion to an earlier pattern of attacks closer to the Niger Delta.