AMBREY THREAT CIRCULAR> TEMPORARY CEASEFIRE AGREED
Date issued: 08 April 2026
This document has been approved for distribution by Ambrey Analytics Ltd.
“The US and Iran have agreed on a 2-week ceasefire. Israel has explicitly excluded from Lebanon being included in the agreement. Iran has maintained authority over the Strait of Hormuz despite US demands for safe passage. Ambrey assessed the risk to shipping operating in/off the Arabian/Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, west coast Saudi Arabia, and Israel to have reduced until 22 April, though this may change at very short notice.
Ambrey assessed there to be a realistic possibility of continued risk to unauthorised Strait of Hormuz transits as well as to Israel- and US- affiliated shipping attempting to transit. Shipping is advised to proceed with caution and to engage authorities regarding safe passage of the Strait of Hormuz.”
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- On 07 April, US President Donald Trump announced is acceptance of a Pakistan-mediated ceasefire proposal.
- On 08 April, Iran’s National Security Council stated it had accepted the terms as well.
- Respective allies Israel, Hezbollah, Iraqi militants, and Ansar Allah were reportedly included in the ceasefire. Israel has stated the ceasefire would not apply to Lebanon.
- The ceasefire is set for two weeks and may be extended. Negotiations were to commence on 10 April in Islamabad, Pakistan.
- Iranian official statements have emphasised continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. ‘Safe’ passage has been granted under condition of coordination with Iranian forces and subject to “technical restrictions”.
- Shipping is advised to procced with caution and to engage authorities regarding safe passage of the Strait of Hormuz.
SITUATION
Late on 07 April, less than two hours before US President Donald Trump’s 8pm EDT deadline, Trump stated that he had accepted a Pakistan-mediated ceasefire proposal…