AMBREY THREAT CIRCULAR
Source: This document has been approved for distribution by Ambrey Analytics Ltd.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- It is highly likely that a Somali Pirate Action Group (PAG) is at sea, and has been operating more than 300NM offshore Somalia.
- This group is likely connected to the hijacking of a dhow offshore Garacad, are probably using this as a mothership, and are likely linked to a report of pirate activity in Nugaal, Puntland.
- There are local reports of a possible second PAG gathering in Bari, Puntland, attempting to hire skiffs from local fishermen.
- There has already been an exchange of fire with a Private Armed Security Team (PAST) onboard a Cayman Islands-flagged tanker. There was an earlier approach toward a Seychelles-flagged seiner, likely deterred with warning shots by another PAST.
- Those approached matched the known target profiles and capabilities of Somali pirates.
- Pirates have been able to launch attacks at distances of up to 800NM from Somalia, but the speed and incident locations of the current PAG indicates a heightened risk within the Indian Ocean listed area, and along its immediate boundary.
- The risk is voyage- and vessel-specific. For those at heightened risk, established risk mitigation measures work.
SITUATION
On 26 October, an Iranian dhow was boarded offshore Garacad. This stretch of Somali coast has seen an uptick in Somali piracy since late 2023. In the vicinity of this area, PAGs have held merchant vessels for ransom.
On 2 November, a Seychelles-flagged seiner was approached by a small boat 365NM from Mogadishu, 340NM offshore Somalia. The skiff’s mothership was displaying…