AMBREY THREAT CIRCULAR > RED SEA CRISIS
This document has been approved for distribution by Ambrey Analytics Ltd.
A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Ambrey assesses Israel-affiliated vessels to remain at high risk.
- Ambrey assesses a realistic possibility that US, UK, and allied-affiliated vessels may face heightened risk during transit if their states participate in military action against the Houthis or Iran.
- Other merchant shipping is assessed to be at a low risk.
- The last attempted Houthi attack against a merchant vessel occurred on 26 Dec 2024.
B. SITUATION
| Key dates | Description |
| 26 December 2024 | Last Houthi targeting of a merchant vessel |
| 19 January 2025 | Israel-Hamas ceasefire, Houthis announced they would stop “banning” all but vessels wholly owned by Israelis and/or sailing Israeli flag |
| 12 March 2025 | Houthis threatened to target “any Israeli vessel” over the flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza |
| 15 March 2025 | US resumed military strikes in Yemen |
| 18 March 2025 | Israel resumed the conflict in Gaza |
| 29 April 2025 | UK resumed direct military strikes in Yemen, none reported since |
| 06 May 2025 | US-Houthi agreement brokered by Oman |
| 19 May 2025 | Houthi announce ‘blockade’ against Haifa, Israel |