AMBREY INSIGHT >MILITARY COUPS D’ÉTAT IN SUB-SAHARAN COASTAL STATES
Date issued: 03 December 2025
“Ambrey advises companies operating in Sub-Saharan Africa should monitor coup dynamics, assess risks of operational disruption, recognise that slower power consolidation increases instability, and use early-warning indicators and risk planning (including deviations, insurance, contingencies, and crew readiness) for resilient operations.“
Source: This document has been approved for distribution by Ambrey Analytics Ltd.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Shipping companies should monitor political indicators closely and maintain contingency plans for port calls in higher-risk states.
- Since 2021, four Sub-Saharan African coastal states have experienced military coups: Guinea (2021), Gabon (2023), Madagascar (2025), and Guinea-Bissau (2025).
- These coups emerged from deep legitimacy crises, typically preceded by mass protests, repression of dissent, or concerns over regime survival.
- Conflict and significant border closures have generally been avoided, as coup organisers rapidly arrested or neutralised outgoing leaders and consolidated control of the armed forces.
- No foreign military intervention has occurred in these cases; the last decisive regional intervention remains ECOWAS’s Operation Restore Democracy in The Gambia (2017).
- There is a realistic possibility of increased ECOWAS pressure on Guinea-Bissau, though the threshold for military intervention remains high.
- While recent coastal coups have not caused major disruption to commercial shipping, several states exhibit conditions—fragmented security forces, rival armed units, or contested transitions—that heighten the risk of future disruption.
KEY COUP D’ETAT INDICATORS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Legitimacy crises have preceded these coups:
Guinea-Bissau: The Prime Minister of Senegal described the situation as a “sham”, implying the coup was orchestrated by regime insiders. In 2023, the President dissolved parliament following an alleged coup attempt. The 2025 takeover occurred…