AMBREY THREAT CIRCULAR > US INTERVENTION IN THE ISRAEL-IRAN CONFLICT
Source: This document has been approved for distribution by Ambrey Analytics Ltd.
Updated:
This supersedes Ambrey Threat Circular – Israel’s Pre-emptive Strike, dated 13 June 2025, and Threat Circular – Red Sea Crisis, dated 18 June 2025.
A. Executive Summary
- Iran is assessed almost certain to respond militarily to the US strikes on nuclear facilities.
- This is likely to include attacks or seizures of US-affiliated shipping.
- If there is a “closure” of the Strait of Hormuz, this is more likely to be targeted, focused on US and Israeli shipping.
- It is not clear that the US intervention has ended.
- The Houthis have also vowed to respond.
- There has been some business disruption to merchant shipping.
B. Situation
On 22nd June, the US struck targets within Iran. The US operation was focused on degrading the Iranian nuclear programme. The US military reported initial battle damage assessments of “extremely severe damage and destruction”…