AMBREY THREAT CIRCULAR > ISRAEL/IRAN CONFLICT – UPDATE 001
Source: This document has been approved for distribution by Ambrey Analytics Ltd.
Updated:
This supersedes Ambrey Threat Circular – US intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict, dated 23 June 2025.
A. Executive Summary
- Iran responded to the US strike on its nuclear sites by targeting a US base in Qatar.
- The Iranians framed their response as proportionate to the US strikes, and US President Trump dismissed the attack.
- The US President Trump subsequently announced a ceasefire.
- The risk of further attacks on US military bases or a threat to their merchant shipping is assessed to be lowered.
- Both Iran and Israel publicly agreed to the ceasefire, though Israel has since reported a breach, and vowed a response.
- President Trump has declared he was “unhappy” with both Iran and Israel over this.
- There is a realistic possibility that the conflict between Israel and Iran will continue/restart, and there may be subsequent US involvement, but the risk of US involvement is assessed to have lowered.
B. Situation
On 23rd June, Iran launched retaliatory strikes on the Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar. This hosts the US Air Force, the Qatar Emiri Air Force, and other foreign…