AMBREY THREAT CIRCULAR
“Ambrey recommends a thorough affiliation check as part of a transit risk assessment is performed for Red Sea and Gulf of Aden voyages.”
Source: This document has been approved for distribution by Ambrey Analytics Ltd.
EVENT SUMMARY
- The Israel and Hamas ceasefire is fragile as major issues are yet to be settled.
- The Houthis have not announced a change in their target intent, though during the last ceasefire their stated intent was restricted to Israel-flagged and –owned shipping.
- Leading Houthis continue to reject the State of Israel, and allege ‘violations’.
- The US sanctions regime against the Houthis remains in place, and the retaliatory Houthi ‘sanctions’ have not been withdrawn.
- In spite of sanctions and the destruction of Houthi-controlled port facilities, some shipping is still calling their ports, indicating that the coalition actions thus far have been insufficient to force the Houthis to stop their attacks.
- It is possible that, as in January 2025, the Houthis will cease operations against a broad interpretation of ‘Israeli’ shipping for the duration of the ceasefire, but it is too early to be certain.
- Many shipping companies that previously transited the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden may now have greater confidence that the risk has decreased following the ceasefire.
SITUATION
Some media reports seen by Ambrey quoted a member of the Houthi political leadership, and unspecified sources in the Saudi Arabian government, claiming the Houthis decided to cease operations against shipping. Neither source has been corroborated, and official Houthi statements have not offered such assurances.
Just hours after the ceasefire was announced, the Houthi leader declared the group would ‘remain fully alert and prepared’ and closely monitor the agreement’s implementation. His remarks stopped short of declaring an end to Houthi military operations, but neither did they confirm a continuation of previous targeting activity. Similar statements were made in a speech given by the Chair of the Houthis’ Supreme Political Council, Mahdi al-Mashat, on 13 October.
As of 15 October, the ‘Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center’ (HOCC) has not issued any changes in targeting guidance.
The Houthis have continued to reject the State of Israel. The Houthi Defense Minister and Chief of Staff on 14 October framed the ‘battle of Yemen’ as “to liberate Palestine and Al Quds and to confront the Zionist project.”
THREAT UPDATE
During the previous ceasefire, between 19 January 2025 and 18 March 2025, the Houthis maintained a stated threat toward Israeli-flagged and -owned shipping, while emphasising a willingness to return to full-scale targeting …