AMBREY THREAT CIRCULAR UPDATE> INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING UNDER US-IRAN ESCALATION
Date released: 19 February 2026
Source: This document has been approved for distribution by Ambrey Analytics Ltd.
“US-Iran negotiations are set to continue, though the stated ‘red lines’ and military build-up have increased the likelihood of military escalation. Ambrey continues to assess a limited military exchange to be the more likely scenario in case of conflict. At risk shipping is advised to prepare contingencies for the eventuality of military conflict.”
UPDATE
Tensions between Iran and the US have persisted. The US has continued its military build-up across the region, with additional airframes being deployed from the continental US and a second Carrier Strike Group having been deployed, presently offshore Gibraltar. Iran on the other hand has increased military activity in and around the Strait of Hormuz. A US merchant vessel was harassed, and military exercise areas have overlapped with the inbound lane of the Transit Separation Scheme. The military exercises in vicinity of the TSS and Iran’s claimed closure of the Strait increased navigational safety risks to commercial shipping. Simultaneously, two rounds of indirect negotiations have taken place with little rapprochement. Both sides have publicly maintained their maximalist stances and demands, lowering the likelihood for compromise and a successful conclusion of negotiations. Whilst negotiations are set to continue, the stated ‘red lines’ and military build-up…