AMBREY THREAT CIRCULAR> HOUTHIS SIGNAL OPERATIONAL PAUSE
Date issued: 13 January 2026
Source: This document has been approved for distribution by Ambrey Analytics Ltd.
“Ambrey assesses it likely that Red Sea transits will continue to resume gradually and unevenly, led by selective trial voyages by operators assessed as low-risk, while Israeli-owned and Houthi-designated shipping remains absent.”
- Risk is assessed to remain heightened for Israel-owned shipping, but low for most others; assess voyages case-by-case given perceived links.
- The ceasefire has held since 10 October 2025, but progress towards durable governance arrangements in Gaza and Hamas disarmament is limited.
- Bab el-Mandeb resumption is uneven, with successful but limited trial transits rather than a broad return.
The Houthis have launched no attacks against merchant shipping or Israel since the Israel–Hamas ceasefire on 10 October 2025.
Vessels with indirect Israeli-trade links, US-ownership (e.g. Searchlight Capital Partners), or US-flagged – previously assessed at heightened risk – have transited the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden without reported incident.
Israeli-owned and Houthi-designated (“sanctioned”) vessels have remained absent; Houthi intent toward these interests therefore remains untested.
Some major container lines (Maersk Line Limited (USA) and CMA CGM) have conducted trial transits / resumed selective services through the Bab el-Mandeb. Others have shown interest: Yang Ming stated “Premier Alliance carriers may start by transporting smaller volumes or deploying selective services to test conditions”.
Greek dry bulk operators have been joined by other European players in returning…