CAMEROON 2025 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION & MARITIME RISKS
Source: This document has been approved for distribution by Ambrey Analytics Ltd.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- President Paul Biya is seeking re-election on 12 October 2025. He has held this office since 1982.
- He has since reshuffled key military posts, and government institutions have barred opponents from running.
- The most likely scenario is continuity of the present administration, and some attempts to pre-empt civil disturbance in Yaoundé and the port city of Douala.
- Curfews and travel restrictions could realistically disrupt Douala port operations, Cameroon security escort vessel services and offshore infrastructure crew rotations/supplies to Massongo (evacuating Kole, Moudi crude), which depend on Douala.
- In this scenario, it is unlikely that the Ebome Marine terminal, Kome-Kribi, Kribi seaport and Limbe would need be significantly impacted.
- There are realistic possibilities of more disruptive scenarios, including an attempted elite coup or mass civil unrest.
CONTEXT
President Paul Biya, now 92, has confirmed his candidacy for an eighth term as President on 13 July. Two days later, Biya announced the promotion of new chiefs of staff across all three branches of the military, including Major General Saly Mohamadou, who was aide-de-camp to the previous President, amongst other appointments. Biya has used such powers of patronage during another sensitive period, when in October 2024 he was absent and abroad for more than a month.
On 26 July, Cameroon’s electoral commission barred Maurice Kamto from running for office. Kamto was the runner-up in the last Presidential election, in 2018. The country’s Constitutional Council upheld this decision on 5 August. Whilst his exclusion was probably…