AMBREY THREAT CIRCULAR > INCREASED THREAT TO CONTAINER SHIPPING IN THE BLACK SEA
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Executive Summary
- Ceasefire Collapse: The unofficial maritime ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has been broken, marking a return to active hostilities.
- Russian Port Strikes: Russian forces have launched coordinated attacks on the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Mykolaiv, targeting critical maritime infrastructure.
- Kerch Bridge Attack: Ukraine executed a combined sabotage and unmanned surface vehicle (USV) attack on the Kerch Bridge
- Ukrainian Deep-Strike Tactics: Ukraine’s non-linear warfare operation against Russian military airfields, involving UAVs concealed in containers, is likely to affect the maritime domain, particularly around cargo inspections and port security.
- Stalled Diplomacy: The latest round of negotiations in Istanbul has failed to deliver meaningful progress, suggesting continued volatility and risk in the Black Sea region.
Incidents
The unofficial maritime ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has collapsed. Recent Russian strikes on Ukrainian ports, including Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Mykolaiv, combined with Ukrainian sabotage operations against the Kerch Bridge, followed by an attempted…