AMBREY THREAT CIRCULAR UPDATE> RED SEA CRISIS
Source: This document has been approved for distribution by Ambrey Analytics Ltd.
UPDATED
The Threat Circular dated 18 June 2025 remains relevant and has been updated to reflect recent events.
A. Executive Summary
- The MAGIC SEAS was the first merchant vessel targeted in southern Red Sea since December 2024.
- Ambrey assesses Israel-affiliated vessels to remain at high risk.
- Ambrey assesses a realistic possibility that US, UK, and allied-affiliated vessels may face heightened risk during transit if their states participate in military action against the Houthis or Iran.
- Other merchant shipping is assessed to be at a low risk.
B. Situation
| Key dates | Description |
| 26 December 2024 | Last Houthi targeting of a merchant vessel prior to July 2025 |
| 19 January 2025 | Israel-Hamas ceasefire, Houthis announced they would stop “banning” all but vessels wholly owned by Israelis and/or sailing Israeli flag |
| 12 March 2025 | Houthis threatened to target “any Israeli vessel” over the flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza |
| 15 March 2025 | US resumed military strikes in Yemen |
| 18 March 2025 | Israel resumed the conflict in Gaza |
| 29 April 2025 | UK resumed direct military strikes in Yemen, none reported since |
| 06 May 2025 | US-Houthi agreement brokered by Oman |
| 19 May 2025 | Houthi announce ‘blockade’ against Haifa, Israel |
| 06 July 2025 | Multi-modal attack on merchant vessel with ties to Israel trade |
On 6 July 2025, the MAGIC SEAS suffered a multi-modal attack offshore Hodeidah, Yemen. Following small arms fire from…