AMBREY THREAT CIRCULAR UPDATE – RED SEA CRISIS

RED SEA

07 Jul, 12:32 UTC

AMBREY THREAT CIRCULAR UPDATE> RED SEA CRISIS

Source: This document has been approved for distribution by Ambrey Analytics Ltd.

UPDATED

The Threat Circular dated 18 June 2025 remains relevant and has been updated to reflect recent events.

A. Executive Summary

    • The MAGIC SEAS was the first merchant vessel targeted in southern Red Sea since December 2024.
    • Ambrey assesses Israel-affiliated vessels to remain at high risk.
    • Ambrey assesses a realistic possibility that US, UK, and allied-affiliated vessels may face heightened risk during transit if their states participate in military action against the Houthis or Iran.
    • Other merchant shipping is assessed to be at a low risk.

    B. Situation

      Key datesDescription
      26 December 2024Last Houthi targeting of a merchant vessel prior to July 2025
      19 January 2025Israel-Hamas ceasefire, Houthis announced they would stop “banning” all but vessels wholly owned by Israelis and/or sailing Israeli flag
      12 March 2025Houthis threatened to target “any Israeli vessel” over the flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza
      15 March 2025US resumed military strikes in Yemen
      18 March 2025Israel resumed the conflict in Gaza
      29 April 2025UK resumed direct military strikes in Yemen, none reported since
      06 May 2025US-Houthi agreement brokered by Oman
      19 May 2025Houthi announce ‘blockade’ against Haifa, Israel
      06 July 2025Multi-modal attack on merchant vessel with ties to Israel trade

      On 6 July 2025, the MAGIC SEAS suffered a multi-modal attack offshore Hodeidah, Yemen. Following small arms fire from…

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