Update 28 March 2025
This week, the US administration seized US $47m of proceeds associated with an Iranian oil trade. Due to this active sanctions enforcement, there is assessed to be a heightened threat to US-affiliated shipping in the short to medium term. Companies may be unaware of an assessed affiliation with the US. Ambrey has identified a 1:5 ratio of US-flagged versus US-affiliated merchant vessels operating in the Arabian/Persian Gulf. This ratio is likely to be greater given the method applied in identifying the affiliated vessels.
The below Threat Circular dated 07 January 2025 remains relevant.
A. Executive Summary
- Trump has proposed Iran ‘hawks’ for foreign policy positions, but they have primarily been chosen for their stances on China.
- Under the first Trump administration, a campaign of ‘maximum pressure’ was exerted on Iran.
- A lack of trust between the sides may hamper, if not thwart, efforts to reach a regional settlement.
- Increased sanctions enforcement on Iranian oil exports would be extremely challenging, and could cause further volatility in risk.
B. Situation
Trump’s candidates for Secretary of Defence, Pete Hegseth, Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, and National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, are all described as Iran ‘hawks’. Hegseth sits on the Advisory Board of United Against a Nuclear Iran. Hegseth and Rubio will require confirmation by the US Senate before assuming office. Reports already indicated a possible alternative for Secretary of Defence, with Senator Ron DeSantis being favoured instead of a Hegseth facing allegations over his personal life. US reports indicate there were at least two alleged Iranian attempts to assassinate Trump…