This week, the US administration seized US $47m of proceeds associated with an Iranian oil trade. Due to this active sanctions enforcement, there is assessed to be a heightened threat to US-affiliated shipping in the short to medium term.

Following Ukraine’s initial announcement of the ceasefire agreement signing, the negotiations have significantly slowed. While the Kremlin outwardly expresses its willingness to proceed with discussions, Russia’s maximalist position continues to introduce uncertainty into the process.

Over the past week, there has been a political crisis, sabotage and piracy in the Gulf of Guinea. On the evening of the 18th of March, President Tinubu declared a State of Emergency in Rivers State, Nigeria. As part of the declaration, Rivers State Governor Fubara, his deputy, and all lawmakers were suspended for six months, with retired Vice Admiral Ibokette Ibas appointed as administrator.

The Israel-Hamas ceasefire has been declared over with a resumption of operations in the Gaza Strip. The US are in the process of conducting an extensive campaign against Ansar Allah (“the Houthis”). A continuation of the US campaign against the Houthis is assessed to highly likely increase the risk to US merchant shipping.

Ambrey assesses that it is highly likely that a state actor has deliberately targeted merchant shipping calling Russian oil export facilities including the ports of Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga since at least December 2024. Merchant ships that have called these ports have experienced damage consistent with naval mines.

Ambrey’s Dynamic Elevated Threat Areas are threat-specific, regularly updated, and enable shipping companies to optimise risk mitigation. They perform very favourably in benchmarking exercises with other industry threat areas.

If you wish to find out more on services and solutions, then please reach out at intelligence@ambrey.com and we will book in a session with our Analytics team.

The pace and complexity of changes to the global regulatory market for shipping and trade demand that both investors and stakeholders managing supply chain risks be equipped and agile in response to these dynamic and shifting requirements.

The Houthi announced the cessation of hostilities toward most shipping in response to the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. This constitutes the Houthi intent at least until Israel and Hamas reach agreement on the terms of ‘Phase 2’ of the ceasefire and commence its implementation. ‘Phase 1’ is set to last 42 days from the 19th of January 2025, with an agreement on ‘Phase 2’ to be reached by week 5. The coming weeks will provide the proof of whether the Houthi follow suit with their stated intent.

The leader of the Houthi movement, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, stated in a speech on the 16th of January 2025 that the Houthi “military operations will continue in support of the Palestinian people if the Israeli enemy continues the massacres of genocide and escalation before implementing the agreement”.

On the 4th of November 2024, the Niger Blend crude oil pipeline, located upstream of the WAPCO SEME Terminal in Benin, was attacked. While no group claimed responsibility for the assault, it occurred after a warning issued by the Patriotic Liberation Front (FPL) on 22nd of October, in which they threatened to target the pipeline due to political tensions stemming from the 2023 coup.

After four years without a piracy event, Somali piracy re-emerged in November 2023 and is expected to persist. Pirates ransomed a bulk carrier for more than US $4m in 2024.
After hijacking dhows, pirates have been able to launch attacks at distances of up to 800NM from Somalia. Security policies, influenced by the ‘Shipping industry’ associations’ removal of the HRA, should be re-assessed.

On the 9th of November 2024, the Houthis warned a Turkish-owned bulk carrier to not transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This was the first confirmed engagement of a Turkish-owned vessel by the Houthis. The vessel was southwest of Aden at the time transiting from Tianjin, China, toward Egypt. The crew were told they would be “targeted” if they continued their voyage. The bulker subsequently changed course toward Djibouti and ceased transmitting an AIS signal.

Donald Trump is set to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025. His administration is expected to push for a ceasefire or peace deal in Ukraine. If hostilities resume after such an agreement, many vessels could potentially be trapped in Ukraine in a repeat of February 2022. Russia is likely to continue covert activities aimed at destabilizing Ukraine, including sea mine deployment and sabotage of maritime infrastructure.