On the 9th of November 2024, the Houthis warned a Turkish-owned bulk carrier to not transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This was the first confirmed engagement of a Turkish-owned vessel by the Houthis. The vessel was southwest of Aden at the time transiting from Tianjin, China, toward Egypt. The crew were told they would be “targeted” if they continued their voyage. The bulker subsequently changed course toward Djibouti and ceased transmitting an AIS signal.

Donald Trump is set to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025. His administration is expected to push for a ceasefire or peace deal in Ukraine. If hostilities resume after such an agreement, many vessels could potentially be trapped in Ukraine in a repeat of February 2022. Russia is likely to continue covert activities aimed at destabilizing Ukraine, including sea mine deployment and sabotage of maritime infrastructure.

On 15 October at approximately 18:00 UTC, Ambrey reported via its Sentinel service that a Hellenic Coast Guard Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) was observed performing multiple low-altitude flyovers 22NM south of Gavdos, Greece. Ambrey then observed and recorded the movement of over 31 merchant vessels involved in the SAR operation.

On the 5th of October a Russian Iskander-M missile struck a Saint Kitts and Nevis-flagged general cargo ship PARESA whilst the vessel was moored in Yuzhny, Ukraine. On the 7th of October a Palau-flagged general cargo vessel OPTIMA was struck by a Russian Iskander-M missile, as Russian forces also targeted infrastructure at Odesa, Ukraine. These incidents marked the third direct Russian missile attack on a merchant vessel in the Black Sea in 2024.

Following an Iranian missile attack on Israel on the 1st of October 2024, Israel vowed retaliation. Over recent days, reports have emerged of tankers, normally anchored off Iran’s Kharg Island, distancing themselves from the terminal. Additionally, Iran’s naval assets in Bandar Abbas have reportedly put to sea. Both moves indicated a perceived risk of Israeli attacks against Iran’s oil export infrastructure and ports/naval bases.

On the 1st of October 2024, Iran launched missiles aimed at Israeli military and intelligence bases in response to the killing of senior figures of the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance”. Israeli officials stated that Israel will retaliate against the attack – an Iranian response could impact energy infrastructure and international trade in the Strait of Hormuz, Arabian Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and offshore Israel.

On the 17th of September thousands of beepers were remotely detonated reportedly killing 12 and wounding 2,750. Since the 21st of September 2024, Hezbollah and Israel have launched escalatory airstrikes deep into opposing territories. Haifa port is assessed to be at heightened risk as a potential direct target for Hezbollah.

On the 11th of September a missile struck a Saint Kitts and Nevis-flagged bulk carrier AYA whilst en route from Ukraine to Turkey. At the time of the strike, the vessel was in the Romanian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). This incident marks the first direct missile attack on a merchant vessel in the Black Sea since November 2023. Vessels transiting the Black Sea are advised to conduct comprehensive dynamic voyage risk assessments.

A Turkish-owned, Cameroon-flagged Ro-Ro vessel laden with Russian military KamAZ 6350 6x6 trucks departed from Novorossiysk, Russia, and sailed to Tobruk, Libya, via the port of Gemlik, Turkey. The vessel arrived in Tobruk on the 3rd of August. Russian military deliveries to eastern Libya have been increasing in recent months. In 2024, Ambrey observed numerous instances of US-State Department aircraft performing reconnaissance flights off the coast of Libya, likely monitoring the weapons supply deliveries.

The Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has reportedly authorised a direct attack on Israel, and the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, has announced a response is “inevitable”.

There has been a significant increase in military and political activity in northern Israel, on the border with Lebanon. On 26 June 2024, Israeli media confirmed open-source reports of forces transferring from the conflict in Gaza to the northern border. Two Israeli brigades, based in the north, have recently carried out exercises simulating fighting in Lebanon.

On the 12th of June, a Liberia-flagged bulk carrier was impacted by an RC-WBIED southwest of Hodeida, Yemen. The vessel was transiting with AIS off and west of the main shipping lane. The impact caused the engine room to flood. The vessel
was subsequently declared “not under command” and “dead in the water”.

China conducted short-notice, large-scale military exercises around Taiwan, that included the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), and the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF). The exercise was dubbed “Joint Sword 2024A”. There was no official announcement of the exercise or the exercise areas, the only warnings were issued via media. The Chinese stated the exercise included manoeuvres involving “advancing”, “besieging”, “blockading”, “attacking”, “destroying” and “cutting off”.

The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited China from April 24-26.

During the meetings Blinken discussed the bilateral relationship between the US and China, as well as military-to-military communication to avoid miscalculation and conflict, serious concerns around China providing tacit support to Russia in its conflict against Ukraine and maintaining stability across the Taiwan Strait.

In the afternoon of the 3rd of May 2024, the Houthis announced that they would “immediately” target vessels headed to Israel from the Mediterranean Sea. The Houthis are assessed to possess the range to target shipping in the east Mediterranean Sea from Yemen.

On the 19th of April, a Danish-flagged Ro-Ro passenger ship was compelled to perform evasive manoeuvres to avoid a collision with a Russian warship 7NM northwest off the coast of Zealand Odde. The vessel executed a 360-degree turn and cut its 35kt-speed in half. The operator stated that the Russian vessel "did not follow maritime regulations.”

On the 13th of April, Iran seized an Israeli-owned container ship in the Gulf of Oman. Iran threatened retaliation for the killing of an IRGC General in an Israeli airstrike on Damascus, Syria. The increased threat to Israeli-shipping is assessed to persist in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea. Israel-affiliation is determined more strictly by Iran compared to the Houthi – risk of false targeting persists. Vessels transiting the Indian Ocean should conduct thorough affiliation checks.

On the 7th of April, the Houthis claimed to have targeted a merchant vessel in the Indian Ocean. The Houthis are assessed to possess the capability to reach the vessel’s location, operating between Mombasa, Kenya, and Mogadishu, Somalia. Though the Houthis have stated they will target Israel affiliations in the extended area, they have blamed the Americans and British for the extension of their operations – a targeting of American and British-owned shipping is therefore assessed to remain within the Houthi target profile in the extended area.

On the 3rd of April 2024, the Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro signed into law the creation of the Venezuelan state of Essequibo (‘Guyana Essequiba’). Alongside this, he proclaimed that the elected President of Guyana “does not govern Guyana, Guyana is governed by the [US] Southern Command, the CIA and ExxonMobil”. Ambrey Analytics assesses the dispute is unlikely to result in a conflict, but it could result in business disruption.

On the 2nd of April 2024, the ‘transitional’ military government opened the ‘National Dialogue’. The stated aim is to review a draft constitution, determine the duration of the transition from military to civilian government, and discuss the “political, economic, and social organisation” of Gabon. Following the opening ceremony, the Dialogue was postponed until the 6th of April pending the training of committee chairs. The event is scheduled to last until the 30th of April.

A Panama-flagged tanker and a Liberia-flagged container ship rescued 158 people 61M northeast of Sfax, Tunisia. Ambrey was provided with footage taken by the tanker's crew, which showed at least 20 individuals in the water. Some were wearing life vests, others were not. Additionally, an overcrowded, blue-hulled, small boat typical of those used by Central Mediterranean migrants could be seen alongside the tanker. Both of her outboard engines were operational, but the boat was unsuitable for a Mediterranean crossing. The tanker’s crew embarked the migrants.

- The Houthis have threatened to extend their area of operations to include the Indian Ocean.
- The threat specified that Israeli-affiliated vessels would be targeted.
- The Houthis blame the American and British activity for the escalation – a targeting of American and British-owned shipping is assessed to remain within the Houthi target profile.

Please follow the link below for full threat circular.

The port of Novorossiysk, Russia, has imposed a ban on the navigation of all small vessels and watercraft until the 18th of March, 2024, at 15:00 UTC. While the reasons for the ban were not officially specified, Ambrey assessed that Russian forces likely suspect an imminent Ukrainian unmanned surface vehicle and/or subsea sabotage attack on the port of Novorossiysk, which has replaced Sevastopol as a primary Russian naval port in the Black Sea. Vessels sailing in the Black Sea are advised to conduct a comprehensive voyage risk assessment. Additionally, to post lookouts at the bow of the vessels and to minimise sailing during low visibility.

Ambrey assesses that Haitian gangs hold the advantage in the deteriorating security situation of the country. Past data suggest gang recruitment increases during periods of unrest, displacement, and hunger. Due to the uncertain timeline of force deployment as well as the strategic issues with urban warfare against plain clothes ‘soldiers’, gang control over key areas such as Port-Au-Prince is unlikely to be addressed in the short to medium term. Following PM Henry’s resignation, the process of appointing an interim prime minister may be fraught with further gang-led violence.

Domestic economic issues, have led to a deteriorating security situation in Papua New Guinea. It has also increased opposition to the sitting Prime Minister James Marape, who is set to face a no-confidence vote in May. In January 2024, violent civil unrest started after false reports were shared of public sector pay-checks being reduced by 50% and on 18 February 2024, a conflict involving over 17 tribes resulted in over 70 fatalities in the Enga province.

On the 14th of February, a Chinese fishing vessel was approached by a Taiwan Coast Guard Administration (CGA) patrol boat after it encroached into Taiwanese territorial waters, approximately 1M off Great Kinmen Island, which is administered by Taiwan. Between the 20th-25th of February, the CCG increased its presence and activity around the islands. China is likely attempting to put pressure on Taiwan over the issue of sovereignty of the Kinmen Islands.

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Three crew members were killed following a Houthi anti-ship ballistic missile strike on the bulk carrier TRUE CONFIDENCE.
These were the first crew fatalities since the Houthis began attacking merchant shipping in response to the Israel-Hamas conflict. In the whole of 2023, only one merchant vessel crew member died from a security event in a different theatre.

Please follow the link below for full threat circular.

There has been a notable and measurable increase in the number of irregular migrants attempting to reach the Canary Islands, Spain, aboard small boats. These migrants typically embark on their journeys from Western Sahara, Mauritania, and Senegal, where the number of people on board these small boats varies from 35 to 125. This increasing migration has become a serious safety and security concern for merchant shipping crossing the area.

Please follow the link below for full update.

A Myanmar Navy PGM-421-class coastal patrol vessel (pennant number 423) was damaged by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) launched by the anti-government rebels, the People's Defense Force (PDF), in the mouth of the Dawei River, Myanmar. The UAV reportedly damaged the vessel and injured five naval personnel aboard. The vessel returned fire with heavy machine guns; rebel casualties were not reported.

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The Houthis continue to target Israeli, American, and British-linked shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. So far in February, four vessels have been targeted by the Houthis.

Please follow the link below for full threat update.

Threats in the region have grown significantly, they are complex, and they are now over a wider area of operations.

The situation poses a significant risk to life and the safety of vessels in the area.

Please follow the link below for full update.

Postponement of the upcoming General Elections that had been planned for 25 February 2024 has led to protests and disruption. Opposition leaders called the action an ‘institutional coup.’ Several opposition leaders were detained.

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Ukrainian forces conducted an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attack on the port of Ust-Luga, Russia. The attack resulted in a fire at the Novatek gas terminal. Ambrey observed video footage that showed a large fire at the gas and oil terminal. Residents of nearby towns reported on social media hearing two explosions and eyewitnesses reported the "sounds of flying drones" at 00:20 UTC - 22/01/24, indicating that two long-range Ukrainian UAVs reached the Russian port.

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (Taiwan) are on course to go through a period of heightened political and military tension from the elections until the inauguration of the Taiwan President. The Republic of China has its presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for 13 January 2024. The current President, Tsai Ing-wen, of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has already served a maximum of two consecutive terms. Polling suggests that Lai Ching-te, Tsai’s successor in the DPP, will likely win the election. A win for the DPP over the Kuomintang (KMT) will likely be seen as a setback for Beijing.

The Houthis have broadened their target profile of 'Israel-affiliated' vessels. They have also mistakenly targeted vessels that were no longer associated with Israel. There has been an increased military presence in the Red Sea which has led to the interception of many missiles and UAVs, but the presence has been uneven, meaning ship hardening and protection measures remain important to mitigate the associated risks. In one of the more recent attacks, a speedboat approached at high speed and opened fire on a civilian ship. Armed guards returned fire and repelled this attack.