AMBREY THREAT CIRCULAR UPDATE>RED SEA CRISIS

Source: This document has been approved for distribution by Ambrey Analytics Ltd.

UPDATED

The Threat Circular dated 18 June 2025 remains relevant and has been updated to reflect recent events.

A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• The MAGIC SEAS was the first merchant vessel targeted in southern Red Sea since December 2024.
• Ambrey assesses Israel-affiliated vessels to remain at high risk.
• Ambrey assesses a realistic possibility that US, UK, and allied-affiliated vessels may face heightened risk during transit if their states participate in military action against the Houthis or Iran.
• Other merchant shipping is assessed to be at a low risk.

B. SITUATION

On 6 July 2025, the MAGIC SEAS suffered a multi-modal attack offshore Hodeidah, Yemen. Following small arms fire from skiffs, the vessel was targeted by unmanned surface vessels (USVs) and missiles. Subsequently, the vessel was abandoned and the crew rescued by another merchant vessel. No injuries were reported. The vessel was assessed to be aligned with the Houthi target profile. Two vessels of the operator’s fleet were observed calling Israeli ports prior to the attack, neither of which was the blockaded Haifa. If Ambrey were to have assessed the risk to this vessel ahead of the transit, the risk would have been high, and the vessel would have been advised not to transit. The military spokesperson for the Houthis, Yahya Sare’e, issued a statement on 7 July, claiming responsibility for the attack, claiming the Houthis initially warned the vessel and subsequently targeted it with USVs, unmanned aerial vehicles, ballistic, and cruise missiles. The statement included that the vessel was targeted for violating “the entry ban to the ports of occupied Palestine.”

C. THREAT UPDATE

This incident is an extension of the expressed Houthi intent to target Israel-owned and -flagged vessels alongside a ‘blockade’ against Haifa. Ambrey assesses UK and US affiliated shipping to be at reduced risk, provided neither participates in military strikes on the Houthis or Iran. The Houthis continue to launch missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles toward Israel. These attacks have led to reciprocal Israeli airstrikes against Houthi-held territory such as the ports of Hodeidah and Ras Issa, including those conducting those on 6 July 2025. Due to the active/volatile Israel-Hamas and Israel-Iran conflicts, the Houthi threat to Israeli shipping is assessed to remain elevated. Merchant shipping in Houthi-controlled ports may experience collateral damage during airstrikes. Offensive military action is against the Houthis or Iran is assessed to increase the risk to related shipping in the Red Sea as it is probable the Houthis would resume operations in ‘self-defence’ or in support of Iran.

D. MITIGATION

• Affiliation checks against the Houthi target profile to understand the perceived affiliations of your fleet/vessel: Ambrey recommends a thorough affiliation check as part of a transit risk assessment is performed for Red Sea and Gulf of Aden voyages. Ambrey continues to adjust these as per the developing intent and threat.
• Avoid transiting the southern Red Sea, Bab al Mandeb and Gulf of Aden if there is an affiliation with Israel. Limit aggregate risk exposure if there is an affiliation with the US, UK, or another country that may participate in military strikes on Iran.
• Shipping with a European Union (EU) affiliation is advised to engage with EU NAVFOR Operation ASPIDES. An EU flag, ownership, cargo, operator, or insurance is likely to be considered an EU affiliation. Ambrey advises that where there is a realistic possibility of targeting, close protection services should be requested.
• Merchant shipping assessed to be at heightened risk is advised to carry out Ship Security Assessments tailored to the threat, and to implement recommended and proportionate ship protection measures, including Private Armed Security Teams, before sailing.
• Bridge support: Unarmed advisors to prepare and reassure crew and assist with military liaison. Digital operations can also support with route planning, voyage preparation, and keep the bridge and shore staff informed of any changes in risk while enroute.

CONTACT INFORMATION

Ambrey: +44 203 503 0320, intelligence@ambrey.com

AMBREY – For Every Seafarer, Every Vessel, Everywhere.

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